Backtest a Betting Strategy on 10 Years of Pinnacle Odds
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Frequently asked questions
How many bets does a reliable backtest need?
There is no magic number, but a few hundred bets is a reasonable minimum and a few thousand is far better. Below that, variance can easily disguise a losing strategy as a winning one. Deep odds history gives you that volume without waiting years.
Which odds should a backtest settle on?
Closing odds, because they are the most accurate prices the market produces. A strategy that only profits at soft or opening prices is usually exploiting a discrepancy that vanishes at scale. The Strategy Builder settles every simulated bet at the real Pinnacle closing price by default; you can switch a strategy to opening odds in its backtest settings to see what an early bettor would have got.
Does a profitable backtest guarantee future profit?
No. A backtest shows how rules performed on past markets, and markets adapt. It remains the best filter available: it reliably eliminates bad ideas and tells you whether an idea deserves real-money tracking.
Backtest your own strategy
Free to start, years of real Pinnacle odds, no card required.