Model-based vs rule-based betting strategies

On the roadmap

Powerful models, including your own

Model-derived filters you can use today

Expected goals (mxG) Rolling market-implied expected goals (for, against, luck).Implied probability Devigged opening probability of an outcome, in percent.Market divergence Moneyline vs handicap disagreement on the home win.League line movement Leagues whose odds move a lot after opening.

Keep exploring

Backtest a Betting Strategy on 10 Years of Pinnacle Odds Learn how to backtest a betting strategy properly: avoid overfitting, respect sample size, settle at real prices, and test free on Pinnacle closing odds.Closing Line Value (CLV): The Metric That Predicts Profit What closing line value (CLV) is, why beating the Pinnacle close predicts long-term profit, and how to measure and hunt it with market filters.Betting Strategy Templates Ready to Backtest Ready-made betting strategy templates you can open in the Strategy Builder, backtest on real Pinnacle closing odds and adapt to your own rules.

Frequently asked questions

Is rule-based betting still profitable, or do you need a model?

Rules remain profitable when they are grounded in sharp prices and validated on a large enough sample. Their advantage is that simple rules are much harder to overfit than a model with dozens of parameters. Their limit is expressiveness, which is exactly where a model adds value.

Do I need to code to build a betting model?

Not to use the model-derived filters: expected goals, de-vigged probability and market divergence are available in the builder with no code at all. You only need code if you want to fit your own model, and in that case the public API already lets you drive strategies, backtests and picks from your own stack.

Will I be able to use my own model on Bet2Invest?

That is what we are building. The goal is to let you push your own probabilities or ratings and use them as a filter next to the market-derived ones, then backtest the result on real closing odds like any other strategy. It is not live yet, so treat it as a direction, not a dated promise.

Backtest your own strategy

Free to start, years of real Pinnacle odds, no card required.