Closing Line Value (CLV): The Metric That Predicts Profit

Market filters to hunt CLV

Market divergence Moneyline vs handicap disagreement on the home win.Implied probability Devigged opening probability of an outcome, in percent.Vig range Average book margin (vig) over the last N matches.League line movement Leagues whose odds move a lot after opening.

Keep exploring

Backtest a Betting Strategy on 10 Years of Pinnacle Odds Learn how to backtest a betting strategy properly: avoid overfitting, respect sample size, settle at real prices, and test free on Pinnacle closing odds.Pinnacle Historical Odds: 10 Years of Closing Lines Why Pinnacle closing odds are the sharpest benchmark in sports betting, and how to explore 10 years of openings and closings through free backtests.Model-based vs rule-based betting strategies Model-based betting predicts probabilities, rule-based betting applies conditions. Compare both approaches, then backtest either on years of Pinnacle odds.

Frequently asked questions

Can I have positive CLV and still lose money?

Yes, in the short run. Variance can sink bets that were taken above fair value. Over a large enough sample, though, positive CLV net of the margin converges to real profit.

How much CLV do I need to be profitable?

You need to beat the closing price by more than the bookmaker's margin, once the vig is stripped from both prices. Beating the no-vig close means positive expected value, and every extra point adds to your expected yield.

Is CLV useful in backtesting too?

Yes. A database that stores openings and closings lets you check whether a strategy historically took better prices than the close. That is a valuable robustness check on top of raw yield.

Backtest your own strategy

Free to start, years of real Pinnacle odds, no card required.